March 13, 2026

A sharp decline in completions likely in 2026 for the Portland multifamily market

Q4 2025

Skyline of Portland, Oregon at night with neon signs

Portland multifamily market overview

Despite rising during the closing months of 2025, the vacancy rate in the Portland multifamily market has posted mostly steady performance in recent periods. Vacancy improved during 2024, and trends fluctuated throughout the past year, but the current vacancy rate of 5.2% is identical to levels recorded 12 months ago. Persistent renter demand has been the driving force in maintaining occupancies. In the face of elevated supply growth, apartments recorded net move-ins totaling more than 12,000 units during the past two years, outpacing the delivery of new units during the same timeframe. Despite the continued demand, asking rents declined on a metro level in recent periods, although gains were recorded in the Vancouver submarkets, where vacancy conditions trended lower throughout most of 2025.

While sales activity picked up and per-unit pricing trended higher during 2025, the total dollar volume in closed deals declined in the Portland multifamily investment market. Properties totaling $1.05 billion changed hands during the past year, lagging levels recorded in 2024 by 20%. Larger properties traded at a more rapid clip in 2024. During the past year, assets with more than 150 units made up just a quarter of the number of property sales, after accounting for more than half of the transactions in 2024. With fewer large properties selling, there was a corresponding decline in deals priced at $30 million or more. In 2025, sales velocity for assets priced at greater than $30 million slowed by 40% from levels recorded in the prior year. Cap rates trended lower in recent months, averaging 5.1% during the fourth quarter. In the preceding three months, rates averaged roughly 6.0%.

Looking ahead:

Supply growth in the Portland multifamily market is expected to slow significantly in the coming quarters. Projects totaling only 2,200 units are scheduled for delivery in 2026, which would mark the first time annual completions have fallen below 3,000 units in more than a decade. The easing supply-side pressures should support a tightening vacancy, although softer conditions in the local labor market may drag on renter demand. Area vacancy is projected to close 2026 at 4.8%, after the rate has hovered at or above 5.0% for much of the past three years. This would mark only the second annual vacancy decline since 2022 and would put the rate in line with long-term averages. Rent growth is forecast to rebound in 2026, as deliveries slow and vacancy trends lower. Gains will likely be modest, closely tracking levels recorded in 2024 when rents advanced by 2.2%.

Sales activity is forecast to gain some traction in 2026, and transaction volumes could return closer to long-term average levels. Transactions for larger properties should pick up in the coming quarters after sales for more than 150 units were limited in recent periods. Properties with 150 units or more accounted for nearly 40% of sales from 2020 to 2024, but that figure was trimmed in half during the past year. Sales velocity should accelerate in Vancouver in 2026, specifically for recently built properties. Roughly 25% of the projects that were delivered in 2025 were located in Vancouver, but transaction activity on new builds has been limited. Additionally, the Vancouver area is posting some of the strongest fundamentals in the region, and has been the most active area for sales in the market since 2018.