October 10, 2025

Rent Growth for Tampa’s Multifamily Market Fueled by Ongoing Demand

Q2 2025

Following improvements during the opening months of the year, the Tampa multifamily market continued to record positive shifts in operational performance. The recovery in operating conditions was driven by elevated demand for apartments in the area. Over the past 12 months, there have been net move-ins for approximately 10,000 units in Tampa. This supported the recent improvement in vacancy and softened the impact of the peak levels of supply growth recorded in 2024. There was also a dip in the number of units delivered in the second quarter, with just 1,400 units coming online compared to more than 3,100 in the opening months of the year. This dip may be attributed to the impact that Hurricane Milton had on the construction pipeline, suppressing the rapid pace of deliveries that the market recorded last year. This slowdown, combined with high demand, gave operators room to continue to increase rents, though at a slower rate than they did in recent periods.

The multifamily investment sales market in Tampa posted increased activity in recent months. While there was a slow start to the year, the accelerated pace of transactions during the second quarter brought the total number of trades to this point in the year in line with the same period during 2024. Still, activity is down from pre-2023 levels. The largest share of activity has been in the Central Pinellas County area, which contains 31% of all sales this year. Pricing has trended lower in recent quarters. Year to date, the median price is $187,000 per unit, down 22% from 2024. This reduction in pricing was primarily driven by Class B sales. Middle-tier assets have accounted for 40% of transactions thus far in 2025, but the median price for Class B properties to this point in the year is down 27% from 2024. Pricing in lower-tier assets also trended lower, but at a less extreme rate. Although pricing is down for Class B and Class C properties, Class A assets are trading at a premium while also accounting for roughly 40% of all sales to this point in the year. The median price for top-tier assets is $298,500 per unit year to date, up 16% from last year.

Looking ahead

The Tampa multifamily market is poised to maintain its recent trajectory throughout the remainder of the year. Sustained demand should continue to allow for improving operational performance. For the full year, renter demand is expected to outpace deliveries for the first time since 2021. Vacancy is expected to close 2025 at 6.6%, down 60 basis points annually. This would end three consecutive years of the rate trending higher. Asking rents are expected to gain ground, but annual growth will likely be below long-term levels. Beyond the next six months, supply growth is expected to taper off again in 2026, which could lead to stronger rent gains. Strong absorption levels in Pasco County should continue in the coming quarters, leading to further vacancy improvement and rent growth.

Stabilizing multifamily market conditions in Tampa should keep transaction activity elevated through the second half of 2025. While sales activity for the full year is expected to exceed levels recorded in 2024, total sales will likely lag historic metrics. There could be an uptick in activity in the North Tampa submarket, as this area usually contains some of the strongest activity levels in the region. However, the Central Pinellas submarket is projected to remain the leading area for multifamily sales activity in Tampa this year. A majority of publicly listed properties are Class B and Class C assets, which will likely dilute the share of Class A properties in the transaction mix. Cap rates are not expected to record significant movement this year, falling within the same range that they have remained in since early 2024.