For the net lease sector as well as in commercial real estate at large, the economic picture remains murky, with inflation and rising interest rates at the forefront of consumers’ and investors’ minds, Northmarq (formerly Stan Johnson Company) says in a new report. Fears of a recession still loom, and there has been a noticeable decrease in consumer confidence this year.
Additionally, the industry continues to question the future of 1031 exchanges, and the upcoming mid-term elections could impact economic conditions and investor sentiment as well. Balancing out these trends are strong job growth, low unemployment, robust consumer spending and insatiable investor demand for quality assets, according to Northmarq’s Lanie Beck.
“In the single-tenant net lease market, we’ve seen investment sales volume decline over the past three quarters and compared to the record-setting end to last year, current activity levels may feel somewhat lackluster,” Beck reported. “Put in perspective, though, the market is on pace to have a very solid year, perhaps topping the $70-billion-mark and solidifying 2022 as a top three year in history.”
However, Beck said the fourth-quarter sales total will be telling. “The final three months of the year will not only dictate how 2022 gets logged in the history books, but it will also set the tone for 2023.”