New data reveals the fast-food brands investors trust most

By Matt Lipson, co-founder of Northmarq’s National Restaurant Group

When it comes to fast-food real estate, the biggest names in the industry aren’t necessarily the most successful listings.

While household names like McDonald’s and Chipotle dominate the headlines, lesser-known chains are quietly outperforming where it counts for investors. Closing deals.

According to new data from Northmarq’s National Restaurant Group, El Pollo Loco leads all quick-service restaurant (QSR) brands in listing success rate, with 81% of its restaurant properties listed between 2018 and 2024 ultimately selling. Close behind are Carl’s Jr. with a 76% success rate and Jack in the Box at 73%.

Meanwhile, some of the industry’s most recognizable brands fall short of the top tier. McDonald’s recorded a 66% success rate, Chick-fil-A reached 65%, and Chipotle came in at 56%. Popular upstart Dave’s Hot Chicken trailed with just 30%.

Many of these outperforming brands like El Pollo Loco and Jack in the Box are concentrated in California, a state where strong buyer demand and local brand loyalty often translate to quicker, more reliable transactions.

Behind the numbers

Success rate is the percentage of listed restaurant properties that result in a sale, offering a window into investor demand and the perceived value of different restaurant brands.

The findings reveal broader trends in the QSR real estate market, particularly around:

• Geographic loyalty: Investors are more likely to back regional brands they know and trust.
• Brand perception vs. investment performance: High consumer awareness doesn’t always lead to higher listing success.
• Speculative vs. stable investments: Newer brands like Dave’s Hot Chicken (30% success rate) can carry more risk than more established regional players.

A changing market

The data suggests that investor behavior is increasingly guided by fundamentals, such as location strength and brand longevity over marketing buzz or consumer hype.

While brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle often dominate headlines, they don’t always guarantee a successful exit. We’re seeing that quieter, regionally strong players can deliver just as much value in today’s market.

The takeaway

For investors evaluating net lease restaurant opportunities, the data signals a need to look beyond brand prestige. As El Pollo Loco and others show, consistent market performance may matter more to the success of your listing than trendiness.

So next time you pass an El Pollo Loco, don’t just think lunch — think long-term asset play.