NorthMarq’s Sue Blumberg contributed her perspectives in a REJournals story titled, “Investors rushing to place capital before expected slowdown later this year.”
In Chicago and nationally, commercial real estate investors, brokers and lenders all agree that the industry will see strong activity for the first half of 2020. However, dynamics such as a decelerating economy, trade conflicts, labor availability and the presidential election may turn some actors into fence-sitters by the second half of the year.
Lenders are taking a more defensive stance as they evaluate LTVs, individual debt exposure by property, property cash flow and tenant and business line. Though many of the responding lenders report heading into the year with optimism for stable to strong deal velocity, any change to the low interest rate environment could sour their mood.
“We’re expecting to see more of the same,” said Blumberg. “We’re projecting a 5 to 10 percent increase in origination levels in 2020 compared to 2019. Where we’ll see the most activity is also more of the same with multifamily and industrial leading the pack and healthy levels for office properties.”