MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA (February 1, 2023) – The overall single-tenant net lease market posted its third strongest year in history, with approximately $77.6 billion in sales volume. A strong start to the year, as 2021’s momentum carried over to first quarter 2022, allowed the market to perform as well as it did annually, but recent quarterly activity tells a different story. Influencing factors, like inflation and rising interest rates, have seemingly caught up with investors and sales volume has slowed considerably. In fact, the single-tenant net lease market has now reported four consecutive quarters of declining activity and quarterly totals are down 66 percent year-over-year.
The fourth quarter comparison is perhaps overly dramatic due to last year’s record-setting final quarter, but looking forward, it’s likely that we’ll continue to see lower levels of sales volume in the coming quarters rather than a return to near-record highs. There is currently enough uncertainty in the market that some investors may choose to observe from the sidelines, taking a more cautious approach. Alternatively, as pricing trends shake out, investors seeking higher yields may find new opportunities. There is no expectation that investment activity across the single-tenant net lease market will grind to a halt, but the market should be prepared to see conservative activity levels in at least the first half of 2023. Past the mid-year point, demand will be influenced by economic conditions – especially if we enter a recession – interest rate levels, supply/demand dynamics, and the willingness of sellers to correctly price new-to-market assets. An imbalance with any one of these influences could impact overall demand levels for 2023 and beyond.
The multi-tenant retail sector has also witnessed a reduction in activity levels, particularly during the second half of 2022. After a strong fourth quarter 2021, and a second quarter 2022 that was recorded as the third strongest period in history, the sector began seeing a pullback in transaction volume that mirrored the rest of the market. In fact, despite being on pace to have a record-setting year, fourth quarter activity slowed so significantly that we ended 2022 as only the fourth strongest year in history, instead of potentially the first. Multi-tenant retail cap rates jumped by 10 basis points in the final quarter of the year, sitting now at 6.78 percent. This is the highest average cap rate reported in a year, and while it’s likely the start of additional upward movement, cap rate increases are not expected to be dramatic in the next few quarters.
Topics covered include:
- Market data, charts & graphs: current and historical trends for single-tenant office, industrial and retail properties, as well as multi-tenant retail
- Overall market trends
- Market summary & analysis
- Economic data points